A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists want to engage even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end be defeated but both parties has possesses something to gain from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
