Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Immense energy is expended on managing particular approaches. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the primary tool for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and another blackout.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As always, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's vital need on Western support – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and multilateral gatherings.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration works based on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does nothing to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These opposing factors are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to terminate the suggested clauses of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require sustained allied backing.
